原帖由 <i>施華</i> 於 30/4/2015 10:03 PM 發表<br />
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uidiot仔唔係講笑的,亦唔係個人認為,<br />
有眼你睇上場步姐真係冇咩它h了,<br />
頓頓都喺蘋果話步姐跑多了,我阿索本來係話贏三個半馬位當輸,<br />
考慮到田雞未必打得成一添,靠自己貫注力到底亦夠做,<br />
減返田雞果個 ...
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Apart from being tired (which I doubt if it is the case anyway as it has not had any hard run this season), the "poor" performance of Able Friend last run can be explained by:
1. it was too close to the lead
2. J Moore seemed to have been easy on him on morning work before the last run
3. it was giving 5lb to most of its competitors
4. the tempo was too slow
1 and 3 above will not happen this time. 4 is dictated by J Moore. His form also seems to be better than it was before its last run. I doubt that it will repeat its "poor" performance. Even assuming that it does, is it really that "poor". It had still beaten a horse with a rating of 120 with ease by more than a length. Such "poor" performance is probably still enough to win this race. On paper, only 花月春風 has any chance to come close to it. Of course, if its last run was the beginning of a poor form, this race will be more interesting...
Let's see what 戰利品 has done so far...
beating 魔法豪情 by half a length at 1,600m..."with ease"? Definitely not as easy as Able Friend's last run...魔法豪情 is not a 1600m horse, its best distance is probably 1,300m to 1,500m...it is a horse that can't win...many people only remember that 魔法豪情 won the 港澳盃 (at 1,400m), a "Group 3", next up (with 119lb, and definitely not with ease), but it also lost to the other 4 years old at set weight the race before by more than 3 lengths...judging that race alone, 戰利品 is at most only at par with the other 4 years old at 1,600m, if not one or two lengths inferior ...of course, it was 戰利品's first run at 1,600m and it was also its first run after a spell...let's say it can run 2 to 3 lengths faster, it still not in the class of Able Friend or even 美麗之星...
then came the Derby...戰利品 has surely done a lot against it to win the Derby (first run at 2,000m; 2,000m is probably at its best distance; and it was kept two/three wide most way), the time was also good but was it really that good...
first, time is not everything, the track that day was reasonably fast (Able Friend won the 1,400m race at 1:21m, with ease; the tempo was slowed and he was blocked for a run for more than 150m in the straight)...
second, many of the other runners also didn't have 2,000m experiences and are not 2,000m horses, like 醒目名駒, 大印銀紙, etc.
third, the standard of the runners (at 2,000m) at Derby are also questionable. 喜蓮歡星's run last week showed that it is about 4 or 5 lengths behind our best 2,000m horses at this moment (the standard of the QEII last week was also lower; the two horse of the years were not at their best, the tempo was slow - just faster than the class 5 race a little bit earlier that day)...大印銀紙's won last week was good, but it also showed that it is not a 2,000m horse (at this moment) and is also a genuine class one horse, but definitely not a Group one or Group two horse (at this moment)...
all in all, not saying that 戰利品 can't win, as a winner is a winner, you can't underestimate a horse that won 7 of 10 times, just that it has not done enough to justify its short odd on Sunday and I will definitely try to bet against it...if it won, I would certainly be happy for the connection and all horse lovers in Hong Kong as we will have the no. 1 and 2 horses in the world...
